Next year's springer run?

[Eric]

Hey fellas,

Jumping ahead here for a minute. If you'll recall, this year's springer run was forcast as early as last summer. The forcast was based on the phenomenal jack count at the dams from last year's return.

Does anyone have the poop on how this year's spring chinook jack counts are shaping up compared to last year's? Everyone talks as though this year's great columbia fishery is a flash-in-the-pan and should be enjoyed now because it likely won't happen again for a long time. At least thats the feeling I get from this board and the media.

I wouldn't rush to judgement. Nature does some amazing things and often throws us one or more curveballs when we least expect it. With the turnaround in ocean conditions I would like to think there is hope of experiencing this again in the not-to-distant future.

What kind of jack count is needed for the states to consider another April fishery?

[finclipped]

I think its still too early to anticipate what next year will be like. The jacks come back somewhat later than the adults and the jacks passing over Bonneville will likely peak in early May. Currently they are tracking behind last year, but ahead of nearly any other year since 1977. Given the low water year, Jacks will likely also show up early. Here is a link so you can monitor them yourself.
http://www.cbr.washington.edu./dart/adult_rpt.html

Last year 21,000 jacks were counted between April 1st and May 31st, which is the official "Spring" run. After that they are considered Summer fish. This count was more than double any other jack count on record. I doubt it will happen two years in a row, seeings how it hasn't happened for 70 years.

If they have an anticipated run over 75,000 springers next year, we would have another mainstem season, however the quota would be very small.
This is because we can identify "finclipped" salmon and release them. Thus lowering our impact on wild fish. In future years, nearly all WDFW and ODFW fish will be marked as they were not this year. Without the ODFW and WDFW efforts to mark these fish, there would be no season.