Is it just me, or is there impending market crash coming?

[threecreeks]

I kinda feel like the market is heading down that road again. Anyone have an opinion on this?

-T.C.

[Chromaflage]

Yup - my crystal ball says that it will happen some time after November 2008.

[Just_learning]

Originally Posted by Chromaflage

Yup - my crystal ball says that it will happen some time after November 2008.

Funny.

Atleast nobody will die in a market crash.

[threecreeks]

Both of you, go to your rooms! This was not meant to incite a political debate.

-T.C.

[Chromaflage]

Hey! We weren't debating. I was merely answering your question. Besides, my room is a mess and I don't like it in there right now.

[cptdarel]

darn stock market ain't nuthing but a horse race!

[Just_learning]

Okay, sorry.
On a serious note, I dont foresee a crash coming, more like a correction. Long overdue according to my econ professor last year. But it was only a micro class and said professor no longer works at the college.

[CATCH AND EAT]

Originally Posted by Just_learning

Okay, sorry.
On a serious note, I dont foresee a crash coming, more like a correction. Long overdue according to my econ professor last year. But it was only a micro class and said professor no longer works at the college.

A Casualty of Economics I would suspect.

Kerry, I think you had right though. However, the market is very hot and a correction is due. You cannot gain 1000 points without some sort of correction. Look for this to happen in July around the 21 or so. Just don't panic and cost yourself a ton of money. Time value of money will take care of you as long as you are not right near retirement. If you are then a conservative approach should already have been taken to protect your assests. I have moved my investments to more moderate and conservative niches at this time with very little exposure to highly volital stocks.

BTW many things can change by november of 2008. Interest rates, inflation, unstable governments, housing and a hair stylist instead of a barber in the big white house on pensilvania ave. Watch the key indicators and make your moves and investments wisely.

[roadsend]

"a hair stylist instead of a barber in the big white house on pensilvania ave."

For John Edwards??

[BCF]

From all the extra moisture in the air from Global warming causing excess hair frizz. You can predict the weather better than you can predict the stock market these days.

Let's see some empirical data to back up any claim thus made in this thread.

Is it finger pointing time here at Ifish again??????

BCF sticking to fishing

[swampy]

Impending market crash ??? I doubt it . Although we have gone four years without a pull-back of ten percent or more, a crash , in my opinion , would be brought on by some unforeseen world event ...terrorist attack for ie. vs just because one feels like it's due.
I've been involved with the financial markets for over twenty years and have never seen anyone "time" the market . That's the bad news . The good news is that that won't keep one from building wealth with stocks.
In fact , the stock market has shown to be an excellent way to build wealth over the years .
Managing a portfolio is like fishing ...there's more than one way to getter done. But the sooner you get your strategies "dialed in" the better , then stick to it.
Rather than guessing market trends , I've found that investing via ones time horizon , tolerance for risk , objectives and goals are more important.
In my balanced accounts(stocks and bonds etc) I "rebalance" assets back to a predetermined mix. With the market rally of the last three years that means scaling back stocks , and adding other asset classes.And moving from stock sectors that have outperformed to those that have under performed.
So although I don't invest via expected short term market trends , doesn't mean i don't to try and guess the market some ....:grin:
Reasons why the market may pullback ? Interest rates are very flat right now ...short term about the same as long term ...either short term rates should fall or long term rates should rise . The stock market would like to see short rates come down so if long term rates go up
We've enjoyed a bit a rolling correction in the market ... different sectors taking turns taking a hit ...the oil/energy sector in 4q 06 for ie ...this is healthy for a long term general uptrend .
Earnings are coming in decent and the consumer continues to put out ...this could change , I believe , if the housing market gets rocked.
The political landscape (all personal feelings aside)is one that the market has grown accostomed to. The markets get a bit anxious when considering who will be at the reins next so a little volatility is probably in order.
As ugly as it is to consider , we are due an ugly world event. Sick to think about but normal as per recent history.
But look, I just hopped on here for a fishing report and have gotten way to deep for a friday evening... :blush: ...I'll grab a beer and try to plan my next fishing trip. My advice ? You all should the same (it's friday !!) and not try and time the dang market !!! swampy

[SeaSparrow]

Good advice swampy! Diversify and follow the trends. Oil will go up in price. That's a certainty! Dont put all your eggs in the stock market if you are concerned about the market taking a hit. Use a trained expert to guide you if you are insecure about financial decisions. Go with your comfort level based on age, assets, etc.. Remember gambling is a tax on people who are bad at math...

[Gus Orviston]

good post Swampy,

No don't think we have pending crash, small resettling before more growth is what is indicated by my read/reviews, real estate will get corrected IMO but not below where it started bubbling from, inflation is in check (has been). Economy is growing at a nice pace.

Diversity in your portfolio shouldn't be stock A and B against Bond etc.. your stock investment should be indexed as much as possible; spiders, SP500, even the dow is not a diversified investment cuz it is focused on blue chip Big stocks. EFT mutual funds is a better way to invest in broad range of stocks with diversity built into it.

the biggest risk on the horizon is the dollar weighting against foreign currency. Many countries are moving away from holding green backs and using Euro and Yuan as a diverse way to manage their country holdings. That will result in lowered international investing.... now some may say yeah,, ,but it will hit the economy.

gus

[eddie haskel]

Divest you say?
Does that mean buy different brands of beer?

[Seefood Man]

We had investments with a national broker and they just plan screwed us with their "managed accounts". We pulled it all out and invested in real estate.
Personally, I think the stock market is a very dangerous place to be. Also, I am not a gambler.

[Okie]

Most people will not recognise good advice when they hear it. So I don't attempt to give it to them.

Good Luck;

[Pickles]

On the surface it might look like we are headed for a market crash, but have you looked at the exchange value of the dollar vs other G10 countries lately? If you were to create a graph starting when we invaded Iraq until now, you would see the Stock and Housing market have continued to rise, while the value of the US dollar has sunk. So in a sense partially what we have been seeing is a market correction from a poorly performing US dollar. We live in a Global community and right now the cost of living is rising about 3 times faster then our paychecks!

[Orion]

threecreeks,
I would agree that the market is due for a correction. I suspect that a lot of the recent up-side is due in part to the large amount of money available at the moment. The cash supply has to go somewhere so a lot of it goes into the stock market. 91 day treasuries pay about 5% at the moment. Most of the people with money to invest have been around long enough to remember the days of 10-20% returns. A return of 5% may not be enough to support their retirement needs, or growth plan so into the market the money goes. There will be a correction but no crash, and I suspect we will see it within three to four months. This information is worth almost double what you paid for it.....


Orion

[Cool Texan]

Threecreeks...look at it this way.... if ANY of us really KNEW what was going to happen, we'd be filthy rich.

Bottom line....you can not predict what the market will do or when. It will go up, go down, stay flat, and all of the above.

[D-tangle]

Originally Posted by GSD

What does the crystal ball tell you about this one? Should I sell or stay?

Holy mackeral, I haven't seen that trend since 1928--Sell, sell now!!!

I don't think the market is going anywhere fast, but I will say it is generally positive and relatively stable under GW(but I am not a stock broker, either). In two years, a change in political climate is coming and I would go with Gold and kwikfish from what I have seen in the past.

[JustCallMeDave]

No more political jabs.

Thanks.

[foxer]

I remeber 01-02..I lost quite a bit in my 401k...Cashed it out to by our first house. 6 years later I can sell my house for 2x what I owe on it. And we didnt even put 20% down. Not sure if I would invest in real estate right now though.

[Gus Orviston]

- wrt to some of the thinking thus far.

Will there be a down turn,, sure at some point; 07,08 whatever. will it be a bear market or a cyclical bear. dunno hasn't happened yet. You don't put your money into investments and expect exponential growth in one year.. nor should you put money in and not manage it. IMO if you are targeting individual stocks you are gambling, others call it day trading.

As for some comments above.. cost of living is outstripping our paychecks by 3x.. is not at all true or even founded on anything relevant. Inflation is/and was in check through 2006. See my earlier posts on this,, many people claimed it was going to skyrocket,, or was 3X.. the fact is inflation is held low near 2%. I guess if you pay increase was .75% , 3X inflation would be accurate

Whole sale prices are going down in january (good news ), and consumer prices are up 2.5% YoY (inflation). Which clearly points to no real significant inflation pressure - nor has it for 2006.

Job market is growing at a rate meeting new job entrants entering the market. 2006 numbers were good, and Expectation is jobs will continue to grow.

Housing starts are down in january but before that still not bad and seasonally that is expected, and is expected given the bubble that was created and it is getting checked with little effect on the rest of the economy.

The statement made that not to expect double digit returns.. well that is good idea anyway.. but did you see what the market both DJIA and SP500 returned last year.. if you don't know then you missed double digits in a "weak" market:blush:

Based on economic indicators expect moderate growth and watch for changes in job starts, wholesale indicators, inflation (in check right now).


GSD,, based on a graph I hope you don't really expect an answer; EPS, growth projection and market segment are just starters for knowing what to do.. me I have a heck of time playing my own company's stock.

Anybody - if you are first time invester don't get into a single stock,, buy an Full Market Index type fund, SP500 or the like. buy in at a weekly or monthly rate with Sharebuilder or the like. I have posted before about the Time Value of Money, an the benefits of Compound Interest.

If you want to see some fun spread sheets that can assist you in becoming a millionaire shoot me a PM. NO I am not a business, or consultant. My spread sheet is simple and illustrative how somebody starting out with 30-50k year can obtain 1M$ retirement fund in their life time.

Also 5% not being enough to reach retirement. Better than 0% . It all depends on where you are in your investing. Are you 20-30 and low 40s .. you should/could seek out more return relative to your personal appetite for risk.. 7-8% is reasonable but will be more aggressive that yeild otions of 5%. If you are nearing retirement 5% is good and would be excellent during retirement when you shift to more conservative investments.

Don't leave your investment to somebody to manage.. you can learn enough to manage it yourself - not hard. KISS seek low risk funds that are indexed.

gus

[D-tangle]

Originally Posted by JustCallMeDave

No more political jabs.

Thanks.

Sorry. I couldn't help myself. Wanna buy a kwikfish...cheap?

[swampy]

The current administration has followed a weak dollar policy. Now that's not good or bad !!! It's just the way they are playing it. A weak dollar tends to favor American exporters vs importers . American investors who've been diversified into foreign stocks have benefited from a falling dollar . I think the dollar has bottomed here or somewhere around here.
I've been thrilled with the growth in the value of my house. Especially the last couple of years. Fact is ,though, over long periods of time , the growth in residential housing values has been on par with broad based stock indices.
I don't expect to continue to see 20-30 % growth rates in the value of my house. Just as the those stock returns of the late nineties went away. Equity returns will always revert to the mean. Stocks,houses you name it.
I hear of people saying they were "burned" by the market . If all you did was buy a basket like the S&P 500 ten, twenty,thirty ... years ago and forgot you owned it you would have done well .Simple. The problem may be the "game plan" not the market. It's like springer fishin' !!! Don't give up !!!
Oh,man this is the same thing that happened last night ...I try avoid this stuff on weekends !!
BUT , one more thing ....GSD's Haliburton chart ....No chartist but I'd say that if you want to own the stock , try and buy a half position at what appears decent support at $27-$28. Save some ammo for a chance at better price to fill your position . And please all ...seek market help from some places other than fishing websites !!!

[stilly bum]

Originally Posted by Gus Orviston

As for some comments above.. cost of living is outstripping our paychecks by 3x.. is not at all true or even founded on anything relevant. Inflation is/and was in check through 2006.

I'm too lazy to look up the numbers right now, but I have to ask if you've considered the cost of housing and fuel in that statement. Gasoline has come down recently, but it's been much higher and we all know it will go back up. Inflation numbers from the government don't always include everything.

[backlash442]

What the market hates more than anything else is uncertainty. As long as the picture remains stable things will continue to do well. Start getting some unknowns tossed into the equation and things will turn down.

Personally, I think housing is a big unknown. Just to many ARM's out there to really know what their full impact is going to be. 08 should be interesting as that will be the when 3 year rates adjust. Many people feel the market peaked in 06 nationally but not where I'm at. Many are going to be upside down and many got in by the barest of margins.

Can't remember which figure the govt. tosses out when calculating core inflation but there is one. To volatile. May even be fuel but not sure. But inflation is relatively mild. Amazing really as medical costs, education and more importantly boat prices seem to out strip inflation by a large margin.

[Swamp Puppy]

you know...when i walked outside this morning, i thought the sky looked closer. lol.

[Dullhook]

One of the best ways we can ease the blow of a correction in the U.S. markets is to diversify into international equities. In 2006 international markets out-performed U.S. markets for a fifth straight year. The global economy has been healthy and the weaker U.S. dollar on foreign exchange markets boosts international returns for American investors.

Spreading your money around with some good international mutual funds always makes good sense. If the U.S. dollar continues weakening we can expect international markets to out-perform again, or at least offer us some protection from another U.S. market disaster like we had a few years ago. When retirement is just around the corner like for myself, stability becomes a lot more important than big gains.

[Abalone]

Industrial production is doing OK. Inflation is in check, why would you feel we are headed for market crash ? Overpriced stocks may cause a correction but no reason to fear a crash.

keep in mind we are a world economy now and the way the markets have historically behaved may not necessarily be the way they behave in the future.

I see no reason for fear !

If you want to see what direction we are going watch Industrial production. That represents economic growth.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Abalone

I see no reason for fear !

Our economic system has a fair amount of resiliancy, industries move in cycles, nobody panics. And as mentioned above, the market thrives in certainty.

However, external events do have the potential to kick over the apple crate. Right now, anyone in the market ought to be concerned about two words Iran + Oil. Here's a blurb from the economic dudes:


"Iran's Revolutionary Guards are making preparations for a massive assault on U.S. naval forces and international shipping in the Persian Gulf, according to a former Iranian intelligence officer ... They would also be triggered if the United States or Israel launched a pre-emptive strike on Iran to knock out nuclear and missile facilities. "The plan is to stop trade," the source said. Between 15 and 16.5 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz each day, roughly 20 percent of the world's daily oil production, according to the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration."

If it came to a US v. Iran war, (and I pray it doesnt happen) you'd see skyrocketing oil speculation, possibly gas rationing here at home, and people dumping stocks worldwide as they moved money out of the market.

[Just_learning]

Realistically, which is more likely to happen? Espescially since US supplied weapons were used in Zahedan for a bombing...and the fact that a carrier was brought to the persian gulf months ago and only publically broadcast over American waves recently.

My news may be a few days old, but yours hasnt happened yet. None of which have had an effect on the economy.

But I digress, from the point of the post.

I look at investing over the long term, the market hits high and low points, when its good, its great, and when its bad, its not as bad as it seems. Even investing in a 401k is better than losing the taxable dollars to uncle sam. Just the way I see it.

[garyk]

Let's look at some old news...

When the stock markets reopened on
September 17, 2001, after the longest closure since the Great Depression in 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock market index fell 684 points, or 7.1%, to 8920, its biggest-ever one-day point decline. By the end of the week, the DJIA had fallen 1369.7 points (14.3%), its largest one-week point drop in history. U.S. stocks lost $1.2 trillion in value for the week.

I'm afraid compared to a shooting war with Iran, and subsequent closure of the Straits of Hormuz the impacts of 9-11 noted above would be by comparison, an economic hiccup.

[Gus Orviston]

Inflation is also known as CPI , ,or consumer price index.

Core inflation does not contain energy/fuel. One thing that would raise the price of bread is the cost of getting it there - so the price of bread is enough - or you would be counting twice.

Most of the time when inflation is discussed only a couple of these are relative. And today the transport indexes are setting the tone for the market to go higher.

C-CPI-U US All Items - SUUR0000SA0
C-CPI-U US Food and Beverages - SUUR0000SAF
C-CPI-U US Housing - SUUR0000SAH
C-CPI-U US Apparel - SUUR0000SAA
C-CPI-U US Transportation - SUUR0000SAT
C-CPI-U US Medical Care - SUUR0000SAM
C-CPI-U US Medical Care Commodities - SUUR0000SAM1
C-CPI-U US Medical Care Services - SUUR0000SAM2
C-CPI-U US Recreation - SUUR0000SAR
C-CPI-U US Education and Communication - SUUR0000SAE
C-CPI-U US Other Goods and Services - SUUR0000SAG
C-CPI-U US All Items Less Food and Energy - SUUR0000SA0L1E
C-CPI-U US Energy - SUUR0000SA0E
C-CPI-U US Services - SUUR0000SAS
C-CPI-U US Commodities - SUUR0000SAC

[duckcall]

An old rich friend once told me " buy high, buy low, don't sell". Get in for the long haul, bumps and all. You will be better off.

[stilly bum]

Originally Posted by Gus Orviston

Inflation is also known as CPI , ,or consumer price index.

Core inflation does not contain energy/fuel. One thing that would raise the price of bread is the cost of getting it there - so the price of bread is enough - or you would be counting twice.

That makes sense. So I pay an extra .75 a week for bread when gas goes up. Does in account for the extra $25 a week I pay for gasoline?

[BCF]

Originally Posted by Gus Orviston

Inflation is also known as CPI , ,or consumer price index.


C-CPI-U US All Items - SUUR0000SA0 C-CPI-U US Food and Beverages - SUUR0000SAF C-CPI-U US Housing - SUUR0000SAH C-CPI-U US Apparel - SUUR0000SAA C-CPI-U US Transportation - SUUR0000SAT C-CPI-U US Medical Care - SUUR0000SAM C-CPI-U US Medical Care Commodities - SUUR0000SAM1 C-CPI-U US Medical Care Services - SUUR0000SAM2 C-CPI-U US Recreation - SUUR0000SAR C-CPI-U US Education and Communication - SUUR0000SAE C-CPI-U US Other Goods and Services - SUUR0000SAG C-CPI-U US All Items Less Food and Energy - SUUR0000SA0L1E C-CPI-U US Energy - SUUR0000SA0E C-CPI-U US Services - SUUR0000SAS C-CPI-U US Commodities - SUUR0000SAC

Gus......I am willing to bet that this stuff you printed only has meaning to a few. What does it all mean?????
PLEEEZEHELPMETOUNDERSTANDCPI-U-US-SUUROOOOBBBINBCF

BCF

[Gus Orviston]

Ok.. so the formatting of ifish killed how pretty it was when I pulled it off the CPI site.. fixed now (beat to fit, paint to match)

Those are all different measurements of inflations.. but what you hear on the news is without fuel. The perishable consumer goods are already burended with a price increase.. (if it existed). However, what happened last year/years with fuel cost have/did not result in much of the key elements going up in price. Hence why inflation is still down around 2%.

gus

[Snug 2]

Data for week ending February 16, 2007
US stocks chugged higher on deal speculation, share buyback activity, positive earnings news and a benign assessment of the economy from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke. The DJIA logged its best week in three months, while the Dow Transportation and Utilities averages joined the Industrials in record territory. The Fed Chairman’s testimony to Congress appeared to communicate the Fed’s intent to remain on hold with respect to interest rates for some time. The week’s economic data revealed weakness, witness a drop in industrial production and a plunge in housing starts. Core producer prices rose as expected. Deals underpinning the market included Spain’s Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria agreeing to purchase Compass Bancshares for $9.6 billion. Speculation swirled around Alcoa and DaimlerChrysler’s Chrysler division
as possible targets. Caterpillar and 3M announced large buybacks. Deere & Co. beat earnings estimates and boosted guidance, sending its shares higher. Home Depot is considering moves to unlock shareholder value. Baker Hughes came up short of earnings targets and warned of future disappointment. Results out of Applied Materials were well-received. Microsoft shares fell Friday after CEO Ballmer guided some analyst’s expectations down re: Vista revenues for fiscal ’08. Looking ahead, Wednesday’s CPI report and earnings reports from retailers are likely the events in focus for investors in the coming, holiday-shortened week. Despite the pervasive presence of a “wall of worry”, market fundamentals appear solid and stocks continue to win converts among investors in the competition for capital.

Treasuries softened early in the week as investors and traders awaited Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s monetary policy report to Congress beginning on Wednesday. The Chairman’s economic outlook was consistent with recent statements by other Fed officials: growth appears to be moderating and inflation, although still a concern is likely to also moderate in the near term – any changes in Fed policy will be largely dependent upon changing economic conditions. In reaction to the Chairman’s generally positive assessment of the economy, Treasury prices moved sharply higher on the day as many market participants inferred from these comments that the Fed Funds target rate would remain steady in the coming months. For the balance of the week, other economic reports were generally mixed and Treasury yields continued to trend lower, in a relatively narrow range, through the close of trading Friday. Fixed-income markets closed early Friday in advance of the long Presidents Day holiday weekend. Economic reports (and related consensus forecasts) for the coming week include: Wednesday: January
Consumer Price Index (0.1%, less Food and Energy 0.2%) and January Leading Indicators (0.2%); and Thursday: InitialJobless Claims (325,000).

Source: Bloomberg and Barron's

[12244]

It always dies at Spring Break. One of the only long holiday periods that a big time trader can escape town to spend huge amounts of money!

[threecreeks]

Firt of all, to set the record straight.......I DID NOT start this thread to gain investment advice from those in the know. I feel better just saying that.

I appreciate all the speculative advice (like that play on words....j/k)

One thing I like about Ifish is the diverse demographic of folks who lurk here. With the diversity comes varying opinions about topics like this one.

My wife and I have been pretty conservative with our investments. The old 33/33/33 approach. 33% in real estate, 33% in stocks, 33% in bonds, etc. We didn't suffer when the real estate boom hit Bend (we profited) and got out at the right time (luckily) BTW, if you ever thought of buying a place in Central Oregon, now's the time.

I guess what has got me wondering about where the economy and markets are headed is because of the rampid instability of the world. Yes, there has always been instability and there will always be. But, currently we have so many fronts of instability (world and in-country) I wonder how that will affect our markets. Partisan politics aside, 2008 could mean major foreign policy changes. If the past is any indicator, major changes in policy (either economic, social, or foreign policy) brings market instability.

Excuse my diatribe, put here's my point. With a slowing economy and the coming period of political instability (elections), will stock holders panic and sell or ride the tide and hold?

I am not a politician or economist in the least bit nor do I play one on t.v. Thanks to all who have opinioned here. It has been an interesting read.

-T.C.

[stilly bum]

With the shakey housing market, adjustable and interest-only mortgages, and high consumer debt, hard economic times don't seem all that unrealistic.

[Maverick Maxcat]

I figured out that my buying patterns are much different than the CPI many years ago. Most of what I buy is excluded as being to volatile.....meaning it's going up faster than they want you to know! Fuel, for example. I earned 10 gal of premium gas per hour worked as a laborer in college. I would be lucky to make that as an experienced graduate now! My first new truck, in 1981, cost 1000 hours of labor. To buy a comperable truck today for the same hours, a laborer would have to make $30 an hour. Boats, tires, boots, reloading components, insurance, taxes---they have all gone up much more than wages. I don't know how to fix it, but the facts are plain.

[matttheduck]

That's a good point. The impact of "inflation" is as varied as our individual lives are. If you are buying your home, your cost for housing never goes up - it has "zero inflation" for up to 30 years and probably accounts for a significant percentage of your monthly spending. I'm sure my parents $200 per month payment seemed like a fortune in 1962 - but by 1992 when they burned the mortgage it was hardly noticable.

I think the impact of oil/gas prices is overstated for most folks, except those who do a lot of driving. The difference for me between $1.50 a gallon and $3.00 a gallon is $60 a month. Hardly a deal breaker. It will make some difference as well in stuff I buy at the store, but unless you're eating 100 loaves of bread a week, no way is it $0.75 a week.

On the other hand, stuff we all buy is declining in price. The first computer I ever bought for business was in 1996 and had 256k RAM and a hard drive that was probably not much bigger. It cost $1900. You couldn't buy such a weak machine today except at a garage sale, but you could get one 20 times as good for $500. Same with most electronic gizmos, which folks who are short of cash have no business buying anyway.

It would be fun to track all the things we purchase over the years, but I'm not that OCD.

[Norm]

In my humble but not in anyway educated opinion . The economy is slowing a bit after several good years. I think things are a long ways from the dreded "R" word. Most predict a flat year in corporate earnings, so I think values could correct a bit, but I don't think we will see anything like 2000. I gave up trying to time the market long ago, I invest for the long term (like 10-20 years) using mutual funds. There are lots of very smart people on Wall Street who would love take my money, so I don't play independant investor anymore.

I think people are worried about the real estate crash, but unless unemployement goes way up and interest rates climb above 8% I think the risk is small. Sub prime mortgages only make up ~15% of the total. Out of that 15%, only 20% are at risk so that about 2.5% of the total outstanding mortgages. Companys that write high hisk mortgages may take some lumps (IMO:serves them right), but I think the overall impact will be small. I watch the foreclosure lists like a hawk, in the NW that list is pretty small.

I think the only thing that could tank the stock market short term, is another war in the middle east. I think based on public sediment, that risk is fairly low.

[Abalone]

Wars are good for the economy. The Iraq war of 2001 was just enough to spark the present Bull market. A war with Iran would create a big demand for ammo, bombs, Body bags etc. Everyone would prosper.

We are an Industrial Military economy.

Just think what could happen if the U.S. quit messing around as Mr. Nice guy and decided to Kick some arse. ?

I don't lose any sleep worrying about the Rug Merchants.

BTW. In a traditional sense this is indeed a mature market. Transportation stock as well as other traditional market trends
are in place. For example Boeing is a lagging secture. It tends to do well towards the end of a Business trend and Boeing is selling lots of planes. This in itself doesn't necessarily mean a Crash is intitment.

We are a global economy now.. Things are indeed different.

[Gus Orviston]

Economy slowing, instability,, run run Just not sure what the point is. There is a enough data out there to tell a peson the market is growing, the world markets are presently outstipping the US that is true.

Inflation did a slight uptick for january.. it came in at .2% for the month instead of .1% (report yesterday) . Which drew attention of the market but reaction was .3% down. Continue to watch the monthly/quarterly data. The result is a threat from the Fed not to lower interest rate in the upcoming monetary review.

The Iraq war of 2001 was just enough to spark the present Bull market.

If you look at the EFT and specific stocks that drive the DJIA and S&P prove your comment is true and that the winners in the broad market benefit from war ?

[Maverick Maxcat]

Originally Posted by matttheduck

That's a good point. The impact of "inflation" is as varied as our individual lives are. If you are buying your home, your cost for housing never goes up - it has "zero inflation" for up to 30 years and probably accounts for a significant percentage of your monthly spending. I'm sure my parents $200 per month payment seemed like a fortune in 1962 - but by 1992 when they burned the mortgage it was hardly noticable.

I think the impact of oil/gas prices is overstated for most folks, except those who do a lot of driving. The difference for me between $1.50 a gallon and $3.00 a gallon is $60 a month. Hardly a deal breaker. It will make some difference as well in stuff I buy at the store, but unless you're eating 100 loaves of bread a week, no way is it $0.75 a week.

The housing cost is far from "zero inflation". The payment for P&I is constant for a fixed-rate mortgage, but power, water, sewer, taxes and insurance costs usually rise faster than inflation. The taxes on your parent's place are probably over $200 a month now!

Doing the math on your fuel costs, you only burn about 40 gal a month. Lucky you! I have a friend that works on a ranch, 50 mile one-way commute in a 1984 1-ton 4x4 pickup, with a 454. He uses the truck in his work on the ranch and hauls firewood home with it, so a smaller vehicle is not an option. His fuel bill is over $800 a month, which is 40% of his pay!!!! It is also the reason I had to start chartering. 5 years ago my marine fuel bill was about $1200, it is now over $6000 for the same amount. Everyone living in rural areas or working in professions with high energy inputs such as farming, logging, excavation, mining, transportation, chemical manufacturing, etc are heavily impacted by oil prices.

[Jennie@ifish]

I haven't read this thread, but I do know that there is lots of editing/moderating to be done.

This thread has been closed by moderator request. They are at work and don't have time to do all the editing this thread requires to stay.

So, at their request, "Too much partisan-ism, too much racial/ethnic intolerance ... closed."

If you wish to discuss this sort of thing on ifish, you must do so with respect and foresight, knowing full well our policies on such delicate subjects. Help us out, here, so that we can leave important issues open, to be discussed.

Thank you,