In part. But recent years the formulae for doing so have gone akilter. But a high jack count always means a better adult return the next year than a low one.
How about the possibility that many of the adults from this year's run were netted in the ocean so we will never see them? Great jack counts tell the ocean netters to target them so the cycle repeats. "Ocean conditions" my ass.
It's possible. But best evidence is that springers don't show up in high numbers in ocean fisheries. Have you documentation to the contrary? And with this year's return just getting going, there is as yet no firm indicator that it will come up short.
Adults ytd are half of the 10yr average. Jacks are four times the 10 yr. This looks to be the third time in five years the jack count will be inexplicably high.
ET- Just passing along what I've read here, posted by one of the ACTUAL biologist guys, and what I read in a NW Sportsman article. They don't know where Springers go to rear, but say they don't show up in commercial sampling. Fall fish, on the other hand....
Maybe there are pirate fisheries out there taking springers....
No matter how high the jack count is I'm sure it'll go down like the last record jack count. The next year there was a group that was sure we'd have like a million uprivers the following year. Cooler heads at the state agencies will prevail and work with a forecast in the 250K range. The run will then be 150K or so and non-treaty fisheries will very handily skate past the finish line with lots of extra fish to spare because they "buffered" the the original harvest guideline to account for the possibility the run size will be much lower.
The overall paradigm is well established now. You can pretty much set it up and walk away.
It'll work like this until some new, large and unexpected variable rears it's head.
There are certain hatcheries up river that have been experimenting with delayed release of smolts, getting the fish larger before release. In many cases this disrupts the normal process and these fish return a year early. What we are currently seeing in these high jack counts is the direct result of this hatchery manipulation.
Try lower river hatcheries like the nfl. It doesnt work as good as early release as the smolts spend too much time in the dumb box before release to become actual fish. Love the experts at the hatcheries.
My favorite time to fish is September and October, when most people have tired of it and I find lots of fresh fish with few long faces at the ramp.[/QUOTE]
I for one find jacks better eating then adults. Like veal... its also my understanding hatcheries will use jacks to along with adults to fertalize eggs? Breed a lessor strain get a lessor strain..
Jacks fertilize eggs in the wild, too. Jacks are not a lesser strain, just a share of each age class that comes back after one year at sea rather than 2 to 4 years.
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