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Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

22K views 53 replies 32 participants last post by  SImudBogger 
#1 ·
My brother (and new to ifish, bo4elk) has produced the Oregon Tag Draw Percentages book for since 2001. Last year the book was picked up by the OHA and sold as a fund raiser. I know that he knows a lot about the draw, he spoke at several OHA banquets last year. He got busy this year and didn't have time to deal with the formatting and printing so he just put it online. I like the format he uses, it lists the actual applicant numbers from past years as well as the trends. It also predicts how many years it will be before you do draw a tag. Anyway, its free and you can see it at http://ronwold.googlepages.com/


Bruce
 
#8 ·
Excellent. I have the last few years of the ODFW data myself and come up with the same numbers (for the units I apply for), but it's so easy when someone else does it!! Thank you!!

One note; I expect the actual drawing odds for 100 series (buck deer) to end up pretty skewed. Simply because, IMHO, there will be a bunch of people applying on the new rut hunts, which will take them out of the pool on the other hunts, especially the high-point people.

Nothing wrong with that!!

TR
 
#28 ·
This is the base info. and it is good info from ODFW............however, it is not the same info that BO4 Elk has given us.................Thanks Bo4Elk. Wheels.
 
#14 ·
I put up the site on googlepages (hey, it was free...) and it has gotten so many hits in the last hour that they suspended it. I'll find another host that won't turn it off and I'll post the new location for anyone that is interested.

sorry about that...
 
#15 ·
OK, google has turned it back on. If one of their free pages gets too many hits in a short period they turn it off for a while.
 
#23 ·
I agree, you can calculate the odds with simple math and a pencil, and you will usually be pretty close.
There are a couple of reasons why I run the odds each year.
- First, I look to shop my points, basically I like to see all of the hunts that I could draw with my point count. You could calculate the odds by hand, but there are a lot of hunts (hundreds in the 200 series).
- If I don't have enough points to be in the 75% pool draw for a hunt that I'd like to draw, I want to know how many years it will be before I will be in that pool. That helps me decide if its worth waiting for. This can be calculated by hand too, but its a pain.
- For hunts that take 7 points or less, using the 2007 report will get you pretty close (as you point out). But for hunts that take more than 7 points, using just the 2007 report could be way off. The reason is that people jump into these hard to draw hunts at the high end. They come from the x99 pool or from another hunt. You cant detect this by looking just at the 2007 report. You have to look at 2006, 2005, etc. Here is another way to look at it. Take a hunt that took 11 points to draw in 2007. Using the 2007 report, you scratch off all the guys that had 11 or more points since they drew. You then give a point to the guys that had 10 last year, and conclude that it will take 11 points again in 2008. But then 20 guys with 12 or more points apply in 2008 so instead of 11 points it actually takes 12. The way to catch this is to go back in time (maybe as far back as 1996 for some hunts). You look at who applied for a given year, then examine the next year and see how many new guys jumped in out of nowhere at the high levels. You move on to the next year and see how many new guys jumped in that year. Doing this for each year causes a trend to appear, and you can use that trend to predict how many new guys will jump into a particular hunt in 2008. For the hard to draw hunts with few tags, this sort of thing happens alot. But by looking only at the 2007 report, you can't make a prediction as to whether new guys will jump in, so the calculated odds will be lower than what they actually are.
-Lastly, I run the odds so that I know what hunts can be drawn as a second choice. The second choice draw is probably the most misunderstood part of the draw. If a hunt isn't 100% at zero points, then it means all of the tags were given out to first choice applicants and the hunt will not have a 2nd choice draw. The only way to know which hunts can be drawn as a second choice is to pretty much calculate them all.

But as you stated, calculating the odds isn't rocket science and in most cases, using just the online report and a pencil will get you pretty close.
 
#25 · (Edited)
I for one greatly appreciate that you have taken the time to do the math for me. I especially like the estimate of how many years it will take to draw a particular hunt. I currently have 12 elk points and have for years have sought the coveted Wenaha tag. I now realize that it will be a once in a lifetime tag unless I hit the Powerball and start buying them at auction or live to be 136 years old.

Thanks!

NG
 
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