IFish Fishing Forum banner

Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

22K views 53 replies 32 participants last post by  SImudBogger 
#1 ·
My brother (and new to ifish, bo4elk) has produced the Oregon Tag Draw Percentages book for since 2001. Last year the book was picked up by the OHA and sold as a fund raiser. I know that he knows a lot about the draw, he spoke at several OHA banquets last year. He got busy this year and didn't have time to deal with the formatting and printing so he just put it online. I like the format he uses, it lists the actual applicant numbers from past years as well as the trends. It also predicts how many years it will be before you do draw a tag. Anyway, its free and you can see it at http://ronwold.googlepages.com/


Bruce
 
#29 ·
Take for example......(Wenaha bow elk hunt).............if you have 0 points right now it will take you something like 146 years to draw???? What seems crazy is that my boys (they are only 1 and 3), will never ever be able to draw this hunt (with preference points)..............only chance would be the 25%....and even that is a looooooooooooong shot.

This info. really puts the hunts/numbers into perspective.

lots of questions arise...............like, Is the hunting opportunity worth the wait?

Example: I think it will take me 12 points to draw my antelope (rifle) tag. Once I draw the tag and go back to zero, I will apply for bow tags that only take like four points to draw............so, 3 hunts instead of 1 over a twelve year period...............................The numbers can certainly be frustrating.

I wonder if ODFW will ever start the preference point system over...........Maybe tell everyone to use their points in the next 5 years and then start the system over????????????? I guess to give the next generation a chance..............probably wont happen I am just typing random thoughts without thinking................Wheels.
 
#30 · (Edited)
It won't really take 146 years, if your at zero points thats just how long it would take for all the folks ahead of you to draw, making the folks with 0 points the ones in the top slot. If your close to the top, the "years to draw" is accurate, but at zero or one points on a hard to draw hunt, it really is unknown (will they even have a draw in 100 years?).

One thing I've found since the draw was implemented, hunts eventually stablize. By this, I mean for any given hunt, the points needed to draw rises but eventually stops rising. In a manner, it stabalizes and the odds are fairly consistent year to year.

The really hard to draw hunts, like the Weneha, just haven't stablized yet. If I were to guess, I'd say it will continue to rise until about 14 or 15 points, and it won't go any higher. It takes tremendous patience and determination to apply for 14 years, and not draw a tag, and I think most people won't hold out that long. In particular, someone that does wait that long and finally draws probably wouldn't do it again. I have no mathmatical proof of any of this, its just a gut feeling.

I drew the Walla Walla archery 3 years ago, so I have two points and little chance of drawing it for a while. But I do believe that the folks ahead of me in this hunt will all be transferred out of the state or they are very old and wont be applying next year. :wink: I wish!
 
#34 ·
But I do believe that the folks ahead of me in this hunt will all be transferred out of the state or they are very old and wont be applying next year. :wink: I wish!
That is something that people joke about but I have not heard any model truly reflect; how many hunters who are middle-to-high level point holders are forced to leave the sport for some reason (health issues in particular). That may not seem to be much of an impact now, but with a hunter replacement ratio in Oregon of .35 (i.e. 100 hunters leave the sport and 35 are added) the average age of the hunting populations is rising every year.

Preference points are always a fun topic. :applause:
 
#31 ·
The difference between hunts like Wenaha bow and hunts down in Arizona is that all of Arizona is a draw unit, so the people waiting for the tough tags down there are going without any elk hunting while they wait. Here in Oregon you can still hunt elk during the general season while you hold out for that premium tag, so there's no real penalty for building up points. That's the reason I don't see the point numbers stabilizing for a long, long time for that hunt. The only way I see it happening is if many more units go to a controlled hunt, forcing people to use their points in order to hunt any elk at all. That scenario doesn't seem too far-fetched to me.
 
#32 ·
Regarding the stabalization of the hard to get hunts, your guess is as good as mine. Of all the hunters that applied for elk in Oregon since the program start, and still haven't drawn, there are only 10 left (9 in the 299 pool and one sap that failed to draw because he applied with a non-res in a hunt with no no-res tags). There were 5x that number in 2007 and 20x in 2006. So whenever it does finally peak, it can be said that it is getting close. I'm guessing it will occur in the next few years, but could be wrong. After those 10 draw, we can state that all applicants have either recycled or are new (maybe 13 years new, but still new).

Regarding Arizona, I've applied there multiple times and drawn once. When we don't draw our top choice here in Oregon, the majority of us end up with a tag and a place to hunt, somewhere. You make a good point Ni!. They have the worst draw method that could possibly be concieved (INMHO). Anyone that applies in Arizona basically gets a ping pong ball with their name on it tossed into the draw bucket. If you have failed to draw for 15 years, you get 15 ping pong balls. But if the hunt you are applying for has 1000+ apps, the odds of drawing with 10 or 1 points is still next too nothing. Some hunters will apply their whole life and not draw, and other lucky ***** may draw every other year. Arizona's method doesn't seem fair.
 
#35 ·
I'd love to know the age population distribution associated with the application data, but it is not available. l'll bet that it would produce some really intresting facts. We can track the fall in (apps that jump in to a hunt) and the fall out (apps that quit applying), but there is no information as to why these folks decided to do what they did. As long as the fall in and fall out is reasonably consistent, things are accurate. But if the average age of those with 13 or more elk points is 77, now that would interesting. I once had a college professor that said if you want a perfect simulation, you have to simulate the entire world. It was a bit eclectic, but it does make sense regarding your point on age.
 
#37 ·
Depends on the hunt, but those trophy units are batting around 50% or better. That's why there are not very many tags given out.
 
#39 ·
Great link, thank you for posting it and thank your bother for all the hard work he put into it to share with us.

BTW - I am not depressed, I have 34 years for the elk tag I want. hmmmm I'm 39 + 34 = 73 years old.
 
#40 ·
It's okay Brian. Next time get F&S to give you a 4x4 wheel chair.:excited:Tellem it will need to get you out of the Snake river canyon.:DJust funnin ya. But after your done with it can I borrow it.:wink:

Great link, thank you for posting it and thank your bother for all the hard work he put into it to share with us.

BTW - I am not depressed, I have 34 years for the elk tag I want. hmmmm I'm 39 + 34 = 73 years old.
 
#46 · (Edited)
Brothers... sheez. Can't live with them and can't kill them without going to prison.

In the past, when I published the "years before you will draw" info, if the number was above 10 years, I simply listed "10+ years". Any number higher than that really isn't accurate, even if the math says otherwise. The ODFW doesn't release age or demographics, stuff that could be used to get a more accurate number. They also change things every year, who knows what they'll do next year.

If you run the simulation into the future, you will get numbers like 146 years before you'll draw, but (hopefully) we all know that's not realistic. I don't want someone to think that if it says 40 years till they'll draw to give up on that hunt or that hunt series (like antelope).

I'll leave the "Forever before you draw" numbers in the report, but if its over ten years, just assume a long time, but not necessarily never. If its less than 10 years, and nothing drastic happens, it will be pretty accurate.

I'm also going to add "question and answer" page to the website. I've received tons of questions via email, most are simple, some are beyond me, but the ones I do know the answer to I will add to that page and continue to do so.
 
#47 ·
The numbers are very interesting, but there are not perfect. Two years ago, my group put in for a Wenaha tag knowing that it was impossible to draw. We wanted to gain a preference point and still hunt Saddle Mountain as a second choice. You can't pick a second choice with a point saver. We also didn't want the chance of drawing our Snake River tag becuase the outfitter would not have had room for us. We couldn't have been the only people to think of this.

Also, when people put in for a point saver, those points aren't figured into the percentages. Does anyone know the number of people who put in for point saver, and the number of built up points they have. Depending on the numbers, this could have a big impact on those hard to get tags.
 
#49 ·
I know you can look at the ODFW website and go to the preference points summary for each hunt..........it will show you how many put in for a point saver but it doesn't show how many points they have...............Like Bo4Elk said, one way for the numbers to drastically change is for a mass number of people to jump ship from one hunt to another or a bunch of people with max points who have been applying for point saver every year, now decides to apply for a hunt..............ex. the new rut hunts. Just never know huh. Wheels.
 
#48 ·
The thing you guys who are holding out for the Wenaha don't realize is that the hunt is only getting worse, with all the spike hunters now in the unit before and during the big bull hunt. There will be tons more pressure on the adult bulls and now there will be high calf (spike) mortality. Now add to the mix the bear, cougar and now wolf predation.

You can have it.
 
#50 ·
Huntinfool - your very right about the Wenaha, but I do think it is starting to become known. Last week I got an email from a fellow (I know his name but not his ifish handle) with a bunch of questions on the Weneha numbers. After looking closely at the high end trend, I noticed that it is the first big hunt to plateau in terms of fall in. If you look just south, that unit's big bull archery tag is the fast growing tag (at the high end) that I've seen.

Etonfish - we do consider folks coming from the x99 pools in the odds. If they decide to jump out of the x99 pool at a similar rate as in the past, then the odds will pick them up. There are 10 residents with 14 200 points, 2 non residents. (One of the residents wasn't in the 299 pool last year, but failed to draw). There are around 50 residents with 13 points, and 12 non residents.
 
#53 ·
Etonfish - we do consider folks coming from the x99 pools in the odds. If they decide to jump out of the x99 pool at a similar rate as in the past, then the odds will pick them up. There are 10 residents with 14 200 points, 2 non residents. (One of the residents wasn't in the 299 pool last year, but failed to draw). There are around 50 residents with 13 points, and 12 non residents.

Thanks for the info. I was wondering how that got factored into the equation.
 
#52 ·
They are listed. Click on the 200 series and search for 254R and 255R. They are towards the bottom. The ordering is based on the order as listed in the regs.
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top