Perfect Storm II

[bigshark]

Do any of you folks know how to read the stuff from the weather bureau ? I was told that a monster may be in the making for all the west coast next week. Very very low pressure....It would change my plans if true.
Can anyone confirm this. Thanks in advance.

[Pilar]

Time to go to the beach and watch the Ocean do its thing. Big waves are cool when your standing on Terra Firma.

[KrystalFlash]

Ah yes. The question of the millenium..To go or not to go?

It has been my experience that the best thing that you can do is exactly what my friend Pilar has just told you.
Go and take a look.
The problem with trusting weather forecasts is they are just forecasts or predictions. The weather is ultimately controlled by our friend the allmighty. The bottom line is - we cannot, without at least some error, judge what the weather will be.
I have been hosed by the forecasts/predictions for the last time. I missed out on several great days this year due to listening to the forecasts. I will always go and take a look from now on.
NOAA definately means well; however, even they are NOT perfect.
Go take a look is my recomendation.

Plug.....What Plug?
Team Double Gaynor
Team Pilar
Team Bad Salmon
Fillet and Release Team

[Spot]

Trusting the ocean forecast made by somebody in Arizona or Utah or even somebody in an office in Portland is foolhardy. For a complete set of tools to make your decisions by, try the following link: http://www.oregonsurfpage.com/forecast.shtml
It's the Oregon surf page. I find it indispensible in making the decision as to whether I surf or fish durring the fall and winter. Hope it helps!

[Pilar]

It's not you father's NOAA. Very cool site, Spot. All the stuff I look at in the same place.

Surfs up!

[Jennie@ifish]

We live 5 miles from the jaws at T bay.
We can't trust the forecast, our weather station, the TV station, nuttin.
We get in the car and drive down to look at it for ourselves.
Then we decide.
And the forecast is seldom dependable. You take your chances out there.
Jen

[Floater]

Hey SPOT, cool site.

Qustion: When NOAA makes a prediction at 0330am for Cape Schoal.....to Florence...and 60naut miles, what is the time reference? Does it mean that's what's happening now? Does it mean that's what the next six hours will bring?

I thought is was a prediction of what was to come. Then again, I've been suprised one time and burned another by NOAA reports.

[Pilar]

Floater, as near as I can tell the NOAA forecast is just that, a forecast. They will always err on the side of caution and predict the worst conditions possible for the next 6 hours. So if you have a base swell of 5 ft and the wind might blow, they say 5 ft swell, 4 ft seas.

You stay home and organize your sock drawer and your buddy in Garibaldi looks at the bar and goes fishing. The reality is a glass ocean because the swell was 4 ft and the wind did not blow.

[Spot]

Floater, do what I do and ignore the NOAA forecast. It's made from the Mid-West somewhere.
Take a look at the interactive bouys. The near shore bouys are the current swell/wave heights and wind conditions. Then look at the offshore bouys. They're between 6 and 12 hours away. The bigger the period the quicker they'll reach shore. This'll tell you what to expect for swells. Then look at the the satellite images to determine which way the current front is moving and which end of the eye you're on. This'll give you an idea of which way the wind is going to blow. The isobar charts can tell you how hard they'll blow. It takes some practice but I've found I can generally call it better than NOAA on any given day.
Now that I've given out the key to the kingdom, who's gonna let me ride along?

PS The WAM prediction model is usually close enough for swell size and direction to plan your sick days by.

[Floater]

You know, I used to do a couple of things the day before I went fishing to see if it was going to be a good day on the water.

First, I would see if the robin was still in the nest in the fir tree next door. images/icons/wink.gif
Second, I would count the black/orange fuzzy caterpilers under that fir tree. images/icons/wink.gif
Third, I would watch the smoke coming off the local chimneys to see if it was going straight up or sideways(sideways means there's a storm coming). images/icons/wink.gif

I gave all that up and starting listening to the NOAA reports because THEY knew what they were talking about. images/icons/rolleyes.gif

Pilar and Spot, good info.

Jen, Can we get someone in Garibaldi an honorary membership if they post weather reports six times a day, seven days a week?
images/icons/grin.gif

[Jennie@ifish]

Yip, can do! As soon as you rig me up with my mandatory fish cam!
Read the Hi tech post!
The only problem is that holding a cam, and a laptop to type reports, I don't know how I would hold a fishing rod!
J