Rising Rivers?

[Steelheadman]

Does anybody know how to predict river level as a function of precipitation, duration, and intensity. Any engineers out there? Guess I'll have to keep my eye on the river forecasts.

[Steelheadman]

Here's the statement from 6:30. Also looks like the rivers peaked yesterday and came back down. Guess I'll just have to be patient for the next couple of days.

NORTHWEST OREGON RIVER TRENDS:
SLIGHT RISES ON NORTHWEST COASTAL STREAMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY.

[WaterDog]

The best way I have found to guess what the river will do is experience and looking at river levels and rainfall numbers daily. It also depends how wet its been and what time of year. I use to go as far as building my own graphs on a speadsheet by plotting river level vs rainfall and time. I think you can got alot of that info off the net now. After a few seasons you can pretty much guess what a river will do. The other part of this is you have get out and actually see what the river looks like. And remember there is a lag in the level from the time it rains to time the river rises. It all depends on the how a particular watershed works.

good luck!

[Quick Fish]

Does anyone know where to find rainfall data on the net for coastal points? I've tried to find a site for this info but thus far have been unsuccessful. Obviously, I can go to the Kilchis Canyon weather station (thanks Jen & Bill) but it would be better to have more data points because the precipitation in coastal areas can vary so greatly. Thanks in advance to anyone that can help.

QF

[OneLastCast]

There is a rain guage at the sewer treatment plant across from Nehalem. I thought I had the number but it must be at work. I'll post it later. You have already guessed the problem with using localized rain guages. Last thanksgiving the Nehalem guage recorded about 4 inches for 24 hours, I recorded 8 inches (6 miles away)and I think the North Fork hatchery had 12 inches.
Because of varying porosity and runoff factors of different soils and terrains, existing ground water content, localized intensity of the rain, slopes, etc,etc, it is extremely difficult to model the river level with respect to any particular storm. Engineers have various equations that are all based on assumptions and work for limited areas. The Army Corp of Engineers has the modeling programs HEC I, HEC II, and Mike II (spelling?) considerable field work is required to determine basin area, river profiles, flood ways and flood plains.
There is a guy in Nehalem that has placed river guages on the North Fork, South Fork and the Bay to try to predict potential flooding from rainfall, river level and tidal action. The stuff is fascinating and he has drawn some very interesting correlations but the whole thing can twist your brain into a knot dealing with lag time, NGVD elevations and MLLW elevations.

The best thing to do is keep track of the USGS river guages on the Nehalem and Wilson. Note the water height when you fish and the fishing conditions. You can also call the North Fork Hatchery at 368-5670 for a fairly current river condition report. They usually update every morning.
After a while you can draw some patterns from the larger rivers ie Trask, Wilson, Nestucca, Nehalem from several river guages. Sometimes the smaller rivers, Tillamook, Miami, Cook Creek, Salmonberry mimic the North Fork.

Basically what waterdog said gather as much info as possible but experience will alway give the final answer.

Or if you have the day off.....just go fishing.

OneLastCast

[Steelheadman]

I usually check out the river levels at this site www.nwrfc.noaa.gov. (http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov.) Didn't seem like we got much rain here today but I live close to the banana belt. Im going to check the local dopler radar.

[WaterDog]

Click here: http://www.nwd-wc.usace.army.mil/ftppub/cafe/r136.txt

This will give you 15 - 60 minute increments for river levels for nestucca, wilson, alsea and a few others.

Other regions here: http://www.nwd-wc.usace.army.mil/report.htm

Hope this helps
[This message has been edited by WaterDog (edited 11-26-2000).]

[This message has been edited by WaterDog (edited 11-26-2000).]

[dogfishboy]

Steelheadman,
Not scientific but here's what I do to predict levels. I tap my head threee times, the harder the better, spin quickly counterclockwise 7.3 times while holding my breath. Then, when I pick my sorry a$$ up after having regained conciousness... http://www.ifish.net/forum/images/graemlins/shocked.gif...I go to the computer and punch up this site. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Portland/hydrology.html. I use the "text values" for a update every 15 minutes. Covers may NW streams large and small. Always looking for new sites, let me know if you find some good ones. That is if your not too ****** off at me for being a smart a$$. http://www.ifish.net/forum/images/graemlins/rolleyes.gif

David

[Quick Fish]

Thanks to all who replied to my post about where to find rainfall data sites on the web.

Years ago I remember driving down the Wilson River Highway and somewhere near Gales Creek there was a culvert that stuck out of a hillside. We would shine the headlights on the stream of water coming out to judge what the Wilson and Trask would be like. We've come a long ways. http://www.ifish.net/forum/images/graemlins/grin.gif

QF

[Mike H]

Steelheadman,

Give me an email. I think I can be of some assistance.

Mike H